Would the 700 marks the short-term turning point of S&P? The decline has been too much in too short a time. Should a correction should be in place this week?
Dow and gold has been declining since the beginning of 2009 with no significant correction. When's it due?
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
S&P 500 hit 700. $INDU:$GOLD closed at 7.19
大笨象跳水
昨天剛剛看到匯控底背離和突破了下降趨勢線，所謂純技術分析，無非就是將基本面暫時剝離。今天，供股消息落實，馬上插水。再回頭看看，原來也有不少新聞預兆了。
昨日 Aastocks 上面的新聞 —— 信誠證券投資部經理劉兆祥表示，今天匯控<00005.HK>停牌，而期指大幅低水達三百點，究竟反映甚麼呢？其實期指大幅低水，只是反映匯控明天復牌後股價大幅回落，以目前倫敦匯控折合港元計48元，即匯控明天大跌超過7元，因此期指便要反映匯控大跌的因素。
至於期指反映匯控除權，提出這個說法的人士，根本不知道恆指的計算方法，如果匯控派息便不會調整，但送紅股或除權的話，指數便會作出調整。
因為期指大炒低水，引致一眾衍生工具發行商在開價時出現技術上問題，究竟應根據期指還是根據恆指呢？如果在正常情況，當然是以期指為開價的基準(因為明天恆指會反映匯控大跌的實際情況)，但一些接近死亡的牛證，發行商如何開價便不一樣，例如61805，回收價是12500點，當恆指跌至12550點，期指處於12250點，因此發行商開價時便以$0.06開出，但如果以恆指計，應該值$0.08，因此能夠把握這些錯價機會，便有不俗的利潤。
至於今次匯控供股，較早前流傳的4供1，每股33元更低(如果是集資1400億元，供股價應該是46元)，實際情況是12供5，每股約28港元，對於投資者來說，未必能分別出問題所在(因為4供1，每股46.66元，以一手400股計，供股一百股，供股金額4666元，而12供5的話，每手便是166股，集資金額也是4666元)。
對於匯控來說，是啞子吃黃蓮，因為兩者發行股數完全不一樣，4供1的話，匯控新發行股份是30億股，12供5的話，發行股份便是50億股，當中的差異是甚麼呢？如果匯控有能力的話，根本不可能接受這個條款。簽訂城下盟約，而今次包銷商是看淡匯控的高盛，如果早前高盛看淡匯控而身體力行，目前又能以極低價供股作包銷商，究竟反映甚麼大家心知肚明------匯控已經處於沒有選擇餘地，任由這些大戶宰割。
你看嘛，個股如果炒短線，實在太多變數要考慮了，實在難炒。我還是回去研究 Macroeconomics，炒 Commodities 和 Index ETF 算了！最近工作太忙，停了看 Forex。要找時間回去重新開一個 FXCM Microlot 玩模擬了。
香港個股投資，都最好看看內幕交易先，因為無乜可能我們外圍散戶比內部高層更清楚自己業務的具體情況到底是向好還是向壞走。
Monday, March 02, 2009
匯豐銀行底背離脫離突破下降軌道
0005.hk 剛剛做了底背離，看多。加上上周四五突破了下降軌道，給多了一個看多的理由。雖然上周是道指創新低的一周，但是，因為再創新低的時候，NYSE 同時創新低的股票數目已經不及去年11月和前一周數目多，所以，我們有理由相信本周美市都有技術性反彈，有機會帶動港股做好。
另一方面，看看 insider trades, 就好似無動靜，始終無明顯內部抄底現象出現。
Mr Buffett tends to write allegorically when in defensive mode
Mr Buffett tends to write allegorically when in defensive mode. The allegorical phrases are in red. Interesting read.
Buffett admits Berkshire battered but stays bullish -- In typical fashion, Mr Buffett told investors that 2008 "was devastating ... for corporate and municipal bonds, real estate and commodities. By year end, investors of all stripes were bloodied and confused, much as if they were small birds that had strayed into a badminton game". Mr Buffett also warned that the greater reliance on government aid was likely to lead to unwelcome and lasting consequences for the wider economy: "In poker terms, the [US] Treasury and the Fed have gone 'all in'. Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome after-effects. Their precise nature is anyone's guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation."Gibraltar 定义是 An invincible fortress or stronghold; an impregnable stronghold.
While conceding there was little reason to expect a quick improvement in the global economy, Mr Buffett stressed Berkshire Hathaway would remain "Gibraltar-like" in its financial strength and invited investors to consider that its insurance arm, Berkshire Hathaway's biggest business along with the group utilities investment division, "delivered outstanding results in 2008" and has "excellent prospects".
你那儿够长吗?
男人又多一样东西担心够不够长了. 无名指比食指长出愈多, 证明产前雄激素旺盛, 影响将来一个男人长大了之后的睾丸素的 "排量"; 排量越多, 越喜欢承担风险, 视觉眼肌运动和其他身体肌肉的反应速度都会越快.
科学家做了调查, 发现在超短线职业外汇股票期货炒卖中, 无名指比食指长出愈多的交易员, 赚越多钱.
Neuroeconomics - Digitally enhanced - Successful financial traders are born as well as made
Testosterone and traders - Goldfingers - How traders' testosterone levels affect their income
Glenn Beck 讥讽 Obama 无能力 "arrest" 房市跌势
Fox News commentator Glenn Beck makes a pretty straightforward case about the folly of trying to "stabilize" home prices at current levels in the following YouTube video segment from his show, "Glenn Beck":
推荐纪录片 Zeitgeist Movie
如果你今年只有心情看一部较为严肃的纪录片, 看 Zeitgeist Movie, 官网内有BT 种子下载. 有两个片, 第一部在 Shooter.cn 有中文字幕下载, 而续集则未找到有中文字幕。
If you can only watch one documentary series in 2009, watch the following.
Highly recommend a two-part documentaries: http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/
The film maker makes the movie free. If you want, you may download from their official torrents.
两部片中, 宗教政治部分, 可看可不看, 但是, 经济部分却和我们生长的大环境息息相关, 严重推荐观看!
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